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2019 memory market trend forecast - increased demand, price decline

Date:2019-07-09

2018 is not a calm year. In this year, the electronic components industry chain experienced a number of raw materials out of stock, materials in short supply to increase prices to oversupply prices. The memory market has not been spared, in 2018 annual memory chip manufacturers tied up the layout of investment expansion, resulting in overcapacity, resulting in oversupply in the storage market, resulting in more than half of consumer storage products, affecting corporate profits...

In 2018, the world's leading memory chip maker Samsung, SK hynix, Micron, TOSHIBA, Intel and other companies are competing for fierce competition in innovative technology, but also investing, building factories, expanding Production and other aspects have opened up the battle.

Samsung Electronics invests in memory 2018Year to 99100 million dollars, of which DRAMInvestment81 100 million dollars,NAND Investment18 billion dollars. To expand the productivity of next-generation chips and flash memory,SK Hynix in2017Capital expenditures are set98 billion dollar record, had planned to 2018Year of capital expenditure increased to 134100 million US dollars. Micron’s capital expenditures are also high.81 billion dollars, but lower than the above two manufacturers.

In 2018, Samsung benefited from 1x Nm DRAMand 64 layerNANDThe efficiency of the production line is higher than expected,DRAMand NANDBit shipment growth rates should be 25%and 45%. It is understood that Samsung plans to 2019The wafer fab in Pyeongtaek began mass production10nm LPDDR 5chip.

SKhynix also announced last year that it plans to build a new storage plant in its headquarters in Icheon, South Korea. The factory is at 2018Starting construction at the end of the year, planned to be 2020Year10It is completed in the month. SK hynixplanning at This new factory investment31.2100 million US dollars. In addition, SK hynix Still expanding LichuanM14Product capacity. It is also planned to 20189At the end of the month After completing the installation of the clean room equipment at its new plant in Cheongju, the plant is planned to be 2019Starting production at the beginning of the year. In addition, in China, SK hynixPlanning2018 completed its expansion in Wuxi factory in the year.

Micron is ready at2018 Year to 2019< Span style="font-size:14px;line-height:2;">Year expanded its factory in Taiwan10nm< /span>LevelDRAMProduction of the chip. Micron's factory in Taoyuan County, Taiwan, China is planned to be 2018Enter in the second half of the year1Xnmproduction and migration to the end of the year1YnmProcess node. Its factory in Taichung will be at 2019Abandon in the second half of the year1XnmMigration of products after product migration to newer1ZnmProcess.

Toshiba Memory Business Unit2018A new year in Iwate Prefecture, Japan BiCS 3D NANDThe groundbreaking ceremony for the flash memory factory, which is expected to be 2019Completed at the end of the year, Western Digital also participated in the project. Just last summer, Toshiba plans to start its operation in Yokkaichi Fab6The first stage of the factory. This will help increase it in the coming monthsBiCS 3D NANDFlash output,Fab6The second stage factory is expected to be 2019 year deployment.

Maybe the situation is too intense, the market is not expected to be in place, so that 2018Year memory makers continue to expand memory chip output, 2018full yearNAND Flashsupply increases significantly40%.

No one can think of it at 2018 All year round, Samsung and Apple smart phones shipped less than expected, the domestic mobile phone market is fiercely competitive, and some sales decline Situation, plus IntelPCProcessor at Q3The season is out of stock, North American data center is Q4Incentives such as large orders reduction, globalNAND FlashThe market is in an oversupply state, flash card prices have fallen by more than half;SSD Price falls to 56%;and consumerNAND FlashThe price fell the most, the price dropped the highest year-on-year65%< Span style="font-size:14px;line-height:2;">.

Global smartphone shipments decline in 20182.7%to 14.5100 million, the decline in smartphone shipments in the Chinese market15.5%to3.9100 million, the global market share also fell to 26.9%.

In order to improve the market demand relationship and maximize the company's profits, major manufacturers have cut down2019Investment budget, postponing advanced technology expansion plans, and willNAND flashThe growth rate is lowered Control the trend of falling prices.

Seeing this, some people may say that since the memory market is overcapacity, will the related products continue to cut prices? In fact, the memory market demand is still very large, why?

International e-commerce analysts believe that the market demand for memory chips is still very large, chip manufacturers in 2019A year's plan to reduce capacity and delay mass production After that, it is expected that the oversupply situation of the memory chip market will not continue, but the price cut will still be the key word of this year's storage market.

As people's quality of life improves, new products are emerging in front of us. In addition to mobile phones, smart wear, home terminals, televisions, driving recorders, just a few of the emerging smart robots, AIHelpers, as well as smart speakers and other products have become hot products. Although these consumer electronic device products are not as fast as mobile phones and tablets, and consume a large amount of memory chip capacity, there is still a large memory demand.

In recent years, the sales volume of domestic intelligent hardware industry has exploded, and under the continuous development of technologies such as Internet of Things, cloud computing and artificial intelligence, differentiation The intelligent products are emerging one after another, and the functions are constantly upgraded and updated, and the memory chip demand will continue to increase. It is believed that as artificial intelligence gradually penetrates into people's lives, intelligent hardware products derived from the integration of cloud computing, big data and mobile Internet are widely used, and there is still a broad market prospect in the future memory market.

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